Krapivin V.F., Varotsos C.A. Geoecological information-modeling system and its implication for the biocomplexity and survivability assessment of the Okhotsk Sea ecosystem. In: Proceedings of the 34th International Symposium on Okhotsk Sea & Polar Oceans, 17-22 февраля 2019 г., Mombetsu, Hokkaido, Japan , Okhotsk Sea and Polar Oceans Research Association , С. 409-413.
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The objective of this paper is to provide a new tool for the big data processing and forecasting the state of the Okhotsk Sea ecosystem, including its biocomplexity and survivability. The main idea of the Geoecological Information-Modeling System (GIMS) developed earlier by Varotsos and Krapivin (2017) is used here for the development of the Okhotsk Sea Ecosystem Model (OSEM) that parameterizes the energy exchange between the main trophic components of the Okhotsk Sea, taking into account the impact of human and environmental factors on very detailed spatial resolution. The dependence of energy exchange on environmental factors is modeled with a minimum level of uncertainty. The biological components are modeled using traditional balance equations whose coefficients are calculated from observational data. The simulation results reveal the existence of critical ecosystem states, when the ecosystem’s biocomplexity and survivability reach dangerous levels. Finally, the prognosis of the ecosystem state by 2100 is realized with a precision better than79.9%. Key words: Okhotsk Sea; model; monitoring; pollution effects; environmental impact
| Тип объекта: | Доклад на конференции или семинаре (Доклад) |
|---|---|
| Авторы на русском. ОБЯЗАТЕЛЬНО ДЛЯ АНГЛОЯЗЫЧНЫХ ПУБЛИКАЦИЙ!: | Крапивин В.Ф. Варотсос К.А. |
| Подразделения (можно выбрать несколько, удерживая Ctrl): | 209 лаб. вычислительная |
| URI: | http://cplire.ru:8080/id/eprint/7410 |
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