Krapivin V.F., Varotsos C.A., Soldatov V.Yu. The Earth's population can reach 14 billion in the 23rd century without significant adverse effects on survivability. The International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health , 2017 , 14 (8). С. 3-18. ISSN 1660- 4601 ISSN 1661-7827
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A constructive approach is proposed for the global modeling of processes in the climate-nature-society system based on the information technology that allows the adaptive agreement of parametrical and functional space of global model. Block-diagram is represented for global model of the climate-nature-society system and functional capabilities of its blocks are characterized. A model structure represents a series of items describing global biogeochemical cycles, hydrological cycle, demographic processes, and simple climate model. Survivability indicator is used as a criterion of the humanity survivability. It defines a trend in the dynamics of total biosphere biomass taking into account the tendencies in biocomplexity dynamics of the land and hydrosphere ecosystems. Global model capabilities are demonstrated by means of concrete examples. A classification of the land ecosystem is considered with the separation of 30 types of soil-plant formations for the geographical pixels 45. Humanity is represented by three traditional groups of economical development. The World Ocean is parameterized by three latitudinal zones. Modeling results show the dynamics of the climate-nature-society system to the beginning of the 23st century: world population can reach the level of 14 billions without the occurrence of grand negative processes. Keywords: climate, biosphere, society, model, survivability, biocomplexity, ocean, soil-plant forma-tion, biogeochemical cycle.
| Тип объекта: | Статья |
|---|---|
| Авторы на русском. ОБЯЗАТЕЛЬНО ДЛЯ АНГЛОЯЗЫЧНЫХ ПУБЛИКАЦИЙ!: | Крапивин В.Ф., Варотсос К.А., Солдатов В.Ю. |
| Подразделения (можно выбрать несколько, удерживая Ctrl): | 209 лаб. вычислительная |
| URI: | http://cplire.ru:8080/id/eprint/3777 |
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